Just when investors thought Bitcoin had hit its bottom at $74,000, a leading crypto analyst is calling for even lower prices ahead — possibly all the way down to $38,000.
Certified technical analyst Tony Severino believes we haven’t seen the worst yet. According to his latest market outlook, Bitcoin might fall between $38K and $42K before finding solid ground. And no, he’s not panicking — in fact, he says this move is totally normal.
What’s Behind the Prediction?
Severino uses something called the Elliott Wave Theory, a technical analysis method that maps price movements in waves. He says Bitcoin is currently going through a correction phase, which typically has three waves (A, B, and C). So far, Wave A has played out. Now, Bitcoin could bounce back to around $62K–$65K (Wave B), before a final dip takes it to that $38K–$42K range (Wave C).
This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has followed this kind of pattern. In past market cycles — including the 2017 and 2020 corrections — similar structures played out before the next big bull run.
The Death Cross Warning
Severino also points to a bearish chart signal called the Death Cross, where the short-term moving average drops below the long-term one. It’s a classic sign of continued weakness in the market.
Still, he doesn’t think it’s all doom and gloom. He suggests this phase is part of a healthy long-term cycle that could set Bitcoin up for growth again — especially as we move closer to the next halving event in 2026.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
While a drop to $38K sounds scary, Severino believes it’s a temporary correction. He sees it as part of Bitcoin’s natural rhythm — sharp ups, hard resets, and then new highs. If history repeats, long-term holders might end up being rewarded for their patience.
But in the short term? Things could get bumpy.
