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Bitcoin

Bear Phase Fractal Warns Of Pain, Bitcoin Bull Market To Remain Unbroken

Armando Morrison4 years ago2 years ago05 mins

The rug was just pulled across crypto, wiping out gains from the past week and then some. Bitcoin is now back at prices from March, and is at risk of falling deeper into a bear phase according to a fractal found in the recent price action. What’s notable, is that the same fractal suggests that the bull market isn’t yet over, despite the change to a bear trend for the time being. Here’s what the trajectory of Bitcoin could look like based on Elliott Wave Theory, the LMACD, and the recent reversal across crypto. Bitcoin Price Plummets Back Below $50,000, Matches Breakdown From 2019 A fractal is a repeating pattern that is found all throughout nature, or in this case, finance. On the price charts of coins, stocks, commodities and more, patterns can repeat again and again in a similar manner. Related Reading | Broken Parabola: Mapping Out The Bitcoin Bull Market And More Each pattern can even result in similar price action upon completion. For example, Black Thursday matched the second plunge of the 2014-2015 bear market bottom. Is this fractal from 2019 repeating once again? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The recent price action in Bitcoin, almost perfectly matches the first major correction since the bull market began – back in June 2019. Both times the logarithmic MACD crossed bearish, and the candle structure on high timeframes is strikingly similar. What Elliott Wave Theory And Momentum Indicators Say About The Bull Market If the fractal is accurate and produces similar results, Bitcoin could spend the next six months or so in a downtrend. The bear phase could reach a similar scope and severity as the 2019 peak, considering that the recent price parabola has been broken. A bear phase is more than likely to now follow, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is over. Elliott waves could provide clues to this market cycle’s conclusion | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com For those unfamiliar with Elliott Wave Theory, the study focuses on market impulses based on extreme changes in sentiment. Within each major “motive wave” are typically five impulse waves. If the primary wave is up, and Bitcoin has been in “always up” territory since its inception, then odd numbers waves are also up, with even waves moving against the primary trend. Related Reading | Double Bottom On The Dollar Could Be The End Of Bitcoin Rally Early 2019 would have acted as wave one of five, with the downtrend of wave two concluding on Black Thursday. That bounce began wave three, in which according to Elliott Wave characteristics, is “undeniable.” Wave four is a bit more tricky. It can sure feel like the top is in, but if wave three just ended, Bitcoin bulls’ best hope is that wave four is next. Wave four according to the practice, won’t ever retrace back into wave one’s path. This means that Bitcoin price will never again go below $13,800. If it does, it could suggest a failure, and the top cryptocurrency could be in serious trouble. Featured image from iStockPhotos, Charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin

TA: Bitcoin Dives Further, Here’s Why BTC Could Find Bids Near $42K

Armando Morrison4 years ago2 years ago04 mins

Bitcoin price extended its decline below the $45,000 support zone against the US Dollar. BTC is declining and it could soon test $42,000 or $40,000 in the near term. Bitcoin started a major decline from well above $50,000 and it even traded close to $45,000 The price is now trading well below $45,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $45,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair is likely to find bids near the $42,000 zone or $40,000 in the coming sessions. Bitcoin Price Extends Losses Bitcoin failed to settle above the $50,000 level and started a fresh decline. BTC broke many important supports near $48,000 and $47,000 to move further into a bearish zone. The price traded below the $45,000 support level and settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a minor upside correction from the $43,800 zone. The price climbed above the $45,000 level, but it failed to extend gains. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com A high was formed near $46,645 before the price started a fresh decline. There was a break below the $45,000 support zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $45,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even broke the recent swing low at $43,869 and it is extending losses. An initial support is near the $43,200 level. It is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $43,869 low to $46,645 high. The main support is near the $42,000 zone. It is close to the 1.618 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $43,869 low to $46,645 high. Any more losses might call for a test of the $40,000 support zone. Fresh Increase in BTC? If bitcoin stays above the $42,000 support zone, there are chances of a decent increase. An initial resistance on the upside is near the $45,000 level and the trend line. The main resistance is near the $46,500 zone. A close above the $46,500 level is needed to start a steady increase in the coming sessions. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is moving lower towards the 20 level. Major Support Levels – $42,000, followed by $40,000. Major Resistance Levels – $45,000, $46,500 and $48,000.

Bitcoin Loses Crucial Support Never Broken During Last Bull Run

Armando Morrison4 years ago2 years ago06 mins

With Bitcoin price falling to the low $40,000 range, debate has picked up on if the once trending cryptocurrency’s bull run is now over. There’s no truly telling for sure, however, this time is very different than the last bull market. Why? Because Bitcoin price just lost a key level that never once saw a weekly close below during the last market cycle. Could this be it for the bullish impulse – long before predictions of $100,000 or more per coin are ever reached? Crypto Cycle Could Conclude With Key Level Lost From Past Trends Cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative asset class, regardless if adoption is picking up or not. Sure PayPal is now game, as is Visa and an assortment of others, but the volatile assets have a long road of price discovery ahead. Although most recent crypto participants only have known “always up” as the direction of the trend, things have recently taken a turn downward. BTC has lost the middle Bollinger Band or 20-week SMA | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com But is this “the top?” It’s hard to say. One thing for certain, however, is that Bitcoin price has now lost the middle Bollinger Band – also the 20-week SMA. Passing through the mid-BB in and of itself can be a powerful buy or sell signal. Related Reading | Bitcoin Dominance Dives To Lowest In Years, Altcoin Season Is Finally Here However, the fact that during the last bull run Bitcoin weekly never closed below it, it could be a sign that the structure of the bull market has been broken. Never once was there a meaningful weekly close below the mid-BB | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Will Bitcoin Price Snap Back Into A Bull Phase? What To Look For The Bollinger Bands are a tool created by legendary trader John Bollinger. The tool has a variety of uses, namely measuring the volatility in the price action of assets like Bitcoin. The technical analysis indicator consists of a 20-session SMA as mentioned, and two standard deviations of that moving average that widen and contract based on volatility. When they tighten or “squeeze” it can be a sign a massive move is coming. These large moves can begin or continue a trend after a long pause. The recent peak has more similarities with 2018 and 2019 than 2017 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Bitcoin weekly timeframes have tightened during the recent consolidation phase, and a breakout has started. However, the direction appears to be down according to the middle-Bollinger Band. Passing through the middle-band typically results in several touches of the bottom band to find support. Like last major “tops” the bottom bands widened to extremes, but when they began to tighten back up, the trend was over. A rounding of the top bands also is a sign of the tools suggesting a break in the bull run. Related Reading | All About The Bollinger Bands As for when Bitcoin is ready to turn bullish again, it could be worth waiting for the cryptocurrency to reclaim the middle-BB, which outside of Black Thursday and now, have always been a sign of a bull rally in the making. With Bitcoin now below the key level, the case for a bear phase, however, is now just as strong. Featured image from iStockPhotos, Charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Aims Strong Recovery, Here’s A Key Pattern For Short-term Bottom

Armando Morrison4 years ago2 years ago04 mins

Bitcoin price is likely forming a double bottom pattern near the $42,150 zone against the US Dollar. BTC is showing positive signs and it could climb towards $47,000. Bitcoin is finding a strong buying interest above the $42,000 and $42,150 support levels. The price is still trading well below $47,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $44,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair is likely forming a short-term double bottom pattern with support near $42,150. Bitcoin Price Holds $42K Bitcoin made another attempt to surpass the $42,000 and $42,150 support levels. However, the bulls were active above the $41,500 level. The recent swing low was formed near $42,157. It seems like the price is forming a short-term double bottom pattern with support near $42,150. It recently started a steady increase above the $44,000 resistance levels. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $49,827 high to $42,157 low. Moreover, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $44,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The pair is now consolidating above the trend line and $44,000. An immediate resistance is near the $45,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $46,000 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $49,827 high to $42,157 low. Any more gains could lead the price towards the $47,000 resistance zone. The 100 hourly simple moving average is also sitting near $47,000 to act as a hurdle in the near term. Fresh Drop in BTC? If bitcoin fails to clear the $45,000 and $46,000 resistance levels, there is a risk of a fresh decline. An initial support on the downside is near the broken trend line and $44,000. The main support is now forming near the $42,150 level (the double bottom zone). A downside break below the $42,150 and $42,000 support levels could spark another strong decline in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $44,000, followed by $42,000. Major Resistance Levels – $45,000, $46,000 and $47,000.