Daniele Bernardi shares his big predictions for the future price of Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has some interesting news to share about Bitcoin. His company has a lot of Bitcoin in its portfolio, second only to BlackRock, the global asset manager, which has launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Saylor said that Bitcoin, whose price dropped to $98,149, will increase by an average of 29% over the next 21 years, and will be worth $13 million by 2045 in its best-case scenario. Here’s what Michael Saylor said in his prediction:
“Friend, every Bitcoin you don’t buy will cost you $13 million.”
This is a bold statement that deserves careful consideration.
Those of you who follow me will be familiar with the “withdrawal rate” model. The model relates the price of Bitcoin to the rate of growth of “free” wallets, i.e. wallets that are in the smallest fraction of Bitcoin.
I first presented this model in February 2020 at the Measurement Workshop hosted by Diaman Partners Ltd. In 2023, I updated the model and published the results on Cointelegraph.
The current price prediction is $130,000, a price that Bitcoin will soon reach.
With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the US and 11 companies currently promoting the device, the parameters have changed significantly. I planned to recalculate the model in the fall of 2024, and here we are.
With the revised model, I am ready to predict the price of Bitcoin in 2025 before entering the next cryptocurrency winter (i.e., the fall and winter of 2025). Before I give a short-term forecast, I’ll compare Saylor’s estimates to our model. He estimates the annual returns over the next 21 years, while our model uses a more robust power law. This method relates the average price per coin to the number of non-cash coins in circulation. The product of these variables is an estimate of the market cap of Bitcoin, from which its price can be derived.
Of course, all of these predictions are based on the assumption that Bitcoin will remain stable and its adoption will follow the current trend of strength. As shown in the graph, our calculations show that the median Bitcoin price could reach $8.3 million by 2045. At the peak of the curve, the value will exceed $21.6 million, driven by the halving that marks the end of each bullish cycle.
It is important to keep an eye on Bitcoin’s potential movements, as the market is full of individuals who have made +60% or +100% gains, who get out early, and miss out on the big gains later.
I am not holding Bitcoin forever as Thaler suggests. However, I do not think it should remain in place for many years, until it becomes clear that something more beautiful and functional will replace it (which, unfortunately, has not happened yet). Now, let’s predict its peak in 2025 based on adoption models, especially considering the surge in adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitcoin price peak in 2025 is $261,000, nearly double previous estimates.
Of course, there is no guarantee that these values will be achieved and should not be considered investment advice. I always recommend doing research and analysis before making any investment decisions, preferably with a qualified financial advisor to guide you in setting the right allocations in your portfolio. Understanding the potential and potential of Bitcoin is essential. Otherwise, the price tag may seem too high. Looking at the chart above, you can see that even though Bitcoin hit an all-time high, we are still far from the peak of 2025.
I will leave you with a very profound statement: Everyone will get the Bitcoin price they deserve.
